It’s astonishing that this even needs to be said - or that it feels frightening to say it publicly.
Last year I wrote during the illegal U.S. military occupation of Los Angeles aimed at terrorizing day laborers at the Home Depot near my house:
”yes, it’s warfare, the same type of warfare that used to mostly be a fixture of the kinds of places america would invade and deploy a burger king in some kind of futile effort to keep the peace between an ethnic kleptocracy and some disenfranchised minority group of a just slightly different language and religion. it’s one group of people that’s trying to make some other group of people stop what they’re doing and they’re willing to use guns to get it done. that’s a war. it’s dangerous and inconvenient for everyone in the surrounding area regardless of their identity or viewpoints on the issues in question.”
Trump eventually pulled out of Los Angeles after a lawsuit and for whatever reason turned his gaze toward Minneapolis, where all of these same tactics turned deadly and violent at rapid speed. It turns out that mass deportations are probably the most polarizing policy an American political leader could attempt other than maybe confiscating guns. Several U.S. citizens ended up shot by their own government. The city’s economy ground to a standstill as ordinary life not just for immigrants, but for everyone else was disrupted by the presence of hyper-aggressive law enforcement and a makeshift maze of checkpoints and flash protests that spawned to monitor and oppose the occupation. This warfare, yes, it’s warfare, was also mostly unsuccessful, and the drawdown has begun. Nonetheless, it seems like little has been learned from any of this, and the issue seems to continue to escalate in other domains.
The U.S. government - it’s hard to use the word “military” in this context because the official chain of command became completely bungled - is on such a hair trigger alert for any sign of Mexicans or cartel activity at the border that it deployed a laser weapon to shoot at a child’s birthday balloon. I wish I were joking, but alas, this is a real thing that happened. We’re using lasers to go after the proverbial Mexican 2-year old’s birthday party. Trump has also claimed at points that he has permission to launch attacks inside Mexico.
This seems dubious, given that Claudia Sheinbaum then started accusing America of sending dangerous diseases into their country as a result of unvaccinated tourists. This can be true, and yet, generally, saying people from another country are dirty or diseased or comparing them to pests and vermin, is a precursor to violence. If the U.S. attacks Mexico, as Trump has repeatedly threatened to do, they will retaliate. It will be bloody and violent, just like it was when Trump sent his goons into Minneapolis. This doesn’t seem to be a point that is appreciated in the halls of power in Washington, D.C.
If you, like me, live in a state on the border, this is all totally terrifying. I actually don’t want to live in an area that is being ripped apart by a pointless conflict between a distant superpower and a regional hegemon. 250 years in, the U.S. government is more corrupt than ever, and has little respect for the individual rights it was created to defend. Mexico has improved its stature in my lifetime, but I am basically ignorant of what it is like up close, having only been there as a child. I don’t really feel like I need to cheer on either “side” of a fight between the two.
And it’s all actually very unnecessary. U.S. domestic politics has spiraled to the point where compromise seems almost impossible, but before ICE polarized the issue I don’t think most people really had such strong feelings about immigration that they were willing to shed blood over it. We will simply have to do some kind of limited amnesty at least for the territories that were originally acquired from Mexico. The U.S. could also stop issuing as many new visas as it does today to give the housing market and school systems a chance to catch up with the needs of so many people that have arrived from abroad without the kind of economic resources most more established families have. I do actually think that’s a reasonable and valid criticism of the current immigration system. This doesn’t have to be all or nothing, we can make choices, and accept that no options will be perfect, or satisfy everyone all the time.
Sadly, though, I think Trump is basically our Napoleon or Nero. He doesn’t see a problem with ordinary U.S. citizens on the border dealing with the consequences of a war with Mexico, or of the risk that we could lose and end up making huge, previously unfathomable concessions to a country and culture that is basically foreign to us. He only sees the potential for personal and national glory, but everyone with a conscience must recognize that a war with Mexico would have tremendous costs for anyone in the vicinity.
People constantly point to the risk of a war with China over Taiwan, but I don’t think that is as realistic of a possibility. Both Trump and Biden have been willing to use financial sanctions to punish businesses that get too cozy with China, but there hasn’t been a lot of related physical violence the way immigration has gotten boots on the ground. The U.S. has also already gone to war with Mexico before.
I would strongly urge any sane people in Congress to exert some sort of oversight on this issue. Wars have a way of escalating and spinning out of control quickly - Trump doing something like taking out drones in Mexico or raiding a cartel without coordinating it with their military or police should be a hard red line. The business and investing community also needs to find its spine, sooner rather than later. Companies have poured a lot of money into building factories and marketing every American brand in Mexico. It’s really the only market where we go fully toe-to-toe with China, and have a chance to see what works and what doesn’t with that competition. That all has a lot of value, and Mexico has been a reasonably good partner to American firms, or they wouldn’t do it. A war would make it far more difficult for these investments to continue to pay off, not just for the firms, but for American employees that invested valuable career years into building things there.
The world is complicated, but ultimately, the peaceful, respectful, and collaborative approach is the one that will pay off.
